Friday, August 7, 2009

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) to Serve as Gauge of US Dollar Link to Risk Trends

The US dollar has come under pressure recently as increasing risk appetite drove up demand for higher-yielding currencies and equities. However, the July reading of NFPs is projected to show that the pace of job losses slowed, and the last time we saw a dramatic improvement, the US dollar ignored risk trends and rallied in response. Will we see a similar reaction on Friday?

Trade this news report live with DailyFX Currency Strategist John Kicklighter tomorrow morning


Arguments for an Improvement in Non-Farm Payrolls
1. Initial jobless claims (4-week avg) fell to a 27-week low of 555,250 during the week ending 8/1
2. Continuing claims (4-week avg) eased to 6,278,750 during the week ending 7/25, from 6,769,000 in the week ending 6/27
3. ADP employment fell by the least since October 2008, coming in at -371,000 in July
4. Challenger job cuts fell 5.7 percent in July from a year earlier, marking the second straight decline
5. ISM manufacturing employment component rose to 45.6 from 40.7, signaling that the pace of job losses slowed

Arguments for a Deterioration in Non-Farm Payrolls
1. Conference Board, University of Michigan consumer confidence both fell during July to 3 and 4-month lows, respectively
2. ISM non-manufacturing employment component fell to 41.5 from 43.4, signaling a steeper drop in jobs

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