USD/CAD's fall extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.1469 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, a short term top is formed at 1.1723 after USD/CAD formed a small diagonal triangle with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should be seen that send USD/CAD through 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0784 at 1.1655. Nevertheless, fall from 1.1723 is viewed as a correction to rise from 1.0784 only and hence, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0940/1289 support zone, probably by 61.8% retracement at 1.1143 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 1.1469 will turn intraday outlook neutral first but break of 1.1723 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, consolidation is still in progress..
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction to impulsive rally from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and has met target support zone of 1.0297/0819 already. We're slightly favoring the case that such correction has completed at 1.0754 already, considering that daily MACD is now positive too. Break of mentioned 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone will confirm this case and should at least bring strong rally to key cluster resistance at 1.2191 (61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.7084 at 1.2192). On the downside, below 1.1542 indicates a short term top is formed, but considering the possible five wave structure of the rise from 1.0784 to 1.1723, we'd expect following price actions are corrective in nature and be contained by 1.0940/1289 support zone and bring rally resumption.
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